Friday, April 15, 2011

What Happened to Cisco?

For years, decades even, Cisco has been an icon, the bellweather in tech, a market leader, a prophet and one of the biggest factors in the evolution of technology since the birth of the Internet. There was a time--around the turn of the century--where some were predicting that Cisco would be the first trillion dollar market cap company (its peak was $557 billion in March of 2000). When CEO John Chambers spoke, even after the crash of the dot-coms, everyone listened. Other vendors could say the business outlook was weak but if Chambers said it wasn’t, the market went up. If he said it looked uncertain, the whole market went down. Led by Chambers, Cisco truly led us into the Internet revolution.
However, over the past few years,  Cisco price and its charismatic CEO have come under tremendous fire. What was once viewed as optimism and vision is now viewed as bluster. Five years ago Cisco's stock was $20 per share. Today it's 17 and change. In the same time, archrival Juniper has gone from $17 to $40 and F5 has gone from $30 to $100.
All of this has been intensified over the past few weeks with the Chambers memo to employees to embrace change book-ended by the shutting down of WebEx Mail and Flip. When has Cisco ever had to shut down businesses? So, this begs the question, what happened to Cisco along the way to take them from bellweather to a company that has to shut down a business as big as Flip?
There wasn't one thing that happened or any kind of big transition; I think there were a number of things that created the situation that  wholesale Cisco is in now.

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